By Frank Kamuntu
Four times in four years, Amade has fled his village in Mozambique, fearful he would be killed by Islamic State group-linked militants who burn homes and have a reputation for beheading.
His pocket of northern Mozambique has been blighted by insurgency since 2017, leaving thousands dead on both sides and putting a vast gas production project on hold due to poor security.
In that time, bolstered by international peacekeepers, Mozambique’s government has repeatedly declared that security in the Cabo Delgado region has turned a corner.
Yet after relative calm last year, recent weeks have seen what monitors call “a massive escalation in insurgent violence”.
At least 80,000 mainly Christians have been driven from their homes, Mozambique’s army has suffered its bloodiest day in three years, a town and an island have been reported captured, and several churches burned.
This week it was also reported that some 70 children are feared seized, to be used as child soldiers.
“When we heard shots being fired, we started running,” says Amade, a 60-year-old farmer, about his latest escape in February.
“This was the fourth time fleeing attacks in my village since 2020. We don’t have any food and we are relying on the generosity of others to eat.”
Ernestina Jeremias, a 32-year-old midwife, said she had been forced from her home in Chai three times over the same period.
“The attacks destroyed everything we had, including our lives,” she says while visiting a clinic run by the aid charity Doctors Without Borders at a camp in Macomia.
“This is the third time I have fled from Chai. The last attacks were the most brutal as they happened repeatedly for two weeks.”
The recent attacks, which have often appeared to target Christians, have led the Catholic Church to encourage members to leave the region.
Bishop Antonio Juliane Ferreira Sandramo told the Catholic Pontifical and charity foundation, Aid to the Church in Need (ACN), that those fleeing were avoiding the “same fate of those who were beheaded or shot” in attacks that had already occurred “in dozens of villages … where all Christian chapels were destroyed”.
Insurgency in the chronically underdeveloped province at the northern tip of Mozambique has smouldered since 2017, but only flared into world attention in 2021.
In March that year, fighters shocked the energy world when they stormed the town of Palma. The assault killed dozens and triggered a panicked evacuation of international companies who had been tapping the country’s vast gas reserves.
TotalEnergies, the French energy giant, declared force majeure on its $20bn liquefied natural gas (LNG) plant and left the province days after the violence.
Since then, well-trained and equipped troops from Rwanda have deployed around the area, reportedly at the request of Emmanuel Macron.
The Southern Africa Development Community has added a regional force, including South Africans. But the LNG plant has remained mothballed.
Security appeared to increase sharply last year, particularly around the LNG logistics hub of Mocimboa da Praia, and the town of Palma.
But from January, violence has flared further south, with sightings of large marauding bands of fighters.
On February 9, an insurgent force that locals said was as large as 150 fighters attacked security forces, killing at least 22 soldiers in Mucojo. Islamic State propaganda channels later showed a pile of bodies in uniform, at least two of them beheaded.
The attack was the security forces’ heaviest loss of life since the March 2021 attack on Palma.
There have been other attacks in Chiure, where several churches were burned, as well as in Macomia, Meluco and Quissanga.
Islamic State supporters have hailed the offensive, saying it is part of a wider international push by the group called the “kill them wherever you find them” campaign.
However, analysts say the insurgency is only loosely linked to Islamic State, with the militants driven by local grievances, but taking on the mantle of the notorious group to spread fear and lend their attacks greater publicity.
Borges Nhamirre, a researcher with the Institute of Security Studies, said the insurgents were rising up against neglect, poor governance and discrimination against Muslims.
Since Mozambique gained independence from Portugal in 1975, it has been governed by Frelimo, otherwise known as Frente de Libertação de Moçambique, a democratic socialist political party.
“The militants have rebelled against poor governance by Frelimo over a long period,” said Nhamirre.
Muslims, who make up about 17 per cent of the population and largely live in the north, mostly earn their living from fishing.
“They have long been denied adequate social services like education and health care,” he said. “So there is little loyalty to the state.”
An intelligence report to the United Nations Security Council in January concluded that the local militants had disagreed with Islamic State over “reporting lines, finance, and leadership issues”.
The report said there was no clear evidence of “command and control orders” from Islamic State over the local militants.
TotalEnergies is insistent that it will resume its LNG plant, but the scale of the recent violence has raised further questions over when that will be.
The recent violence led France to advise its citizens not to travel to some parts of Cabo Delgado.
Despite the warning, Maxim Rabilloud, head of TotalEnergies business in Mozambique, toured Palma and Mocímboa da Praia in northern Cabo Delgado province last week.
Insiders told the Telegraph that agreeing finance support to complete development of the project rather than concerns about security was the main concern for TotalEnergies.
According to Mozambique’s Zitamar News, TotalEnergies plans to resume work on its $20bn-plus liquefied natural gas (LNG) project, now known as Mozambique LNG, by the end of June and estimates it would come on line by 2028.
Meanwhile, civilians fleeing the fighting are struggling.
Amade says: “I have lost so much weight that I do not even recognise my body – my pants are falling off as they don’t fit any longer.
“At night I can’t sleep between being hungry and haunted by the memories of the attacks.”
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