Opinion: A Pragmatic Path To Prosperity: How NRM Manifesto Tackles Challenges Of Unemployment & Wages

By Hakim Kyeswa

Across the globe, the spectre of unemployment, particularly among the youth, remains one of the most formidable policy challenges of our time.

Uganda’s story is intertwined with this global narrative, yet it is distinguished by its unique demographic pressures and evolving economic strategy. For decades, the government of the National Resistance Movement (NRM) has pursued job creation through a focus on industrialisation.

However, a profound demographic success driven by improved healthcare, immunisations, and rising life expectancy has yielded a generation where more children survive to adulthood.

This burgeoning youth cohort, a potential demographic dividend, has simultaneously intensified competition for a finite number of formal jobs.

The stark reality is that the entire government apparatus, from central ministries to local councils, can only directly employ a fraction of the workforce, estimated at under 400,000 Ugandans.

The private sector, therefore, is not merely an alternative; it is the only viable engine for mass job creation and sustainable economic upliftment.

As we approach the 2026 general elections, the NRM’s manifesto presents a multi-pronged strategy to address this core issue. A careful reading suggests a deliberate, phased approach focused not just on creating jobs, but on cultivating an entire ecosystem where higher wages become an organic outcome of economic growth.

The Strategic Calculus On Wages & Investment

A frequently debated point is Uganda’s lack of a national minimum wage. From a historical and economic perspective, this was not an oversight but a deliberate policy choice.

A survey of developmental states, from Singapore in the 1960s to several African and Asian nations today, reveals a common initial phase: leveraging comparative advantage to attract foreign direct investment. Often, this advantage begins with competitive labour costs.

The policy rationale is to create a compelling investment climate that draws capital into the country, establishing a foothold for industry. The intended trajectory is not perpetual low wages, but a gradual ascent. As industries become established and the economy diversifies, the competition for skilled and semi-skilled labour naturally exerts upward pressure on wages.

The manifesto implicitly continues this model, betting that a larger, more robust private sector will ultimately deliver better remuneration than a mandated floor could in a fragile economic environment.

Catalysing The Economy: From Grassroots To Factories

The manifesto’s centrepiece for stimulating this growth is the significant injection of capital into the Parish Development Model (PDM), with pledges to increase funding to Shs 200 million per parish annually.

This is more than a poverty alleviation scheme, it is a macroeconomic stimulus from the ground up.

The logic is sound: by integrating millions more Ugandans into the money economy, the policy directly boosts aggregate demand. As the purchasing power of the average household rises, a vibrant market for locally manufactured goods from processed foods to household items is created.

This addresses a fundamental constraint to industrialisation, a lack of market demand. People cannot buy what they cannot afford.

This creates a virtuous cycle. A larger domestic market makes Uganda exponentially more attractive to investors. Factories will follow the demand, establishing operations not just for export, but to serve a growing local consumer base.

This, in turn, creates a heightened demand for labour, steadily absorbing the workforce and reducing the unemployment that fuels job competition.

Reducing The Cost Of Doing Business: The Power Tariff Example

Beyond stimulating demand, the manifesto’s broader policy environment actively works to reduce the cost of production, a key determinant of industrial profitability and expansion.

The recent reduction of electricity tariffs for manufacturers, following the departure of UMEME, is a case study in strategic intervention.

With electricity often constituting up to 30% of operational costs for manufacturing, a significant tariff cut is not a minor subsidy; it is a fundamental recalibration of the business landscape.

This move directly increases profit margins for existing industries estimates suggest a potential boost of up to 15% for some firms.This newfound profitability provides the fiscal space for businesses to naturally increase wages for skilled, semi-skilled, and professional staff without being legislated to do so.

Furthermore, cheaper, more reliable power is a powerful marketing tool for the Uganda Investment Authority.

Coupled with other investor-friendly policies such as tax holidays and land allocation, it makes a compelling case for international capital seeking a competitive and stable operational base in East Africa. Each new factory that breaks ground is a new centre for job creation.

Conclusion: A Stepwise Ascent To Development

The path to a wealthy, developed nation is rarely a sudden leap, it is a stepwise ascent built on pragmatic and interconnected policies. The NRM manifesto outlines such a path.

By strategically stimulating demand from the bottom up through the PDM, while simultaneously making it cheaper and more profitable to produce goods through infrastructure reforms, the plan seeks to create a self-reinforcing cycle of investment, job creation, and rising wages.

As Ugandans contemplate the future, the question is not whether any single policy is a panacea, but whether the overall strategic direction is coherent and sustainable.

The evidence from developmental economics and the historical trajectories of now prosperous nations suggests that the NRM’s approach focusing on creating the conditions for a thriving private sector is a credible, if ambitious, blueprint for turning the challenge of a youthful population into its greatest economic asset.

The writer is an NRM cadre and political analyst | Email:hakimkim255@gmail.com