By Frank Kamuntu
The government has hailed the decline in Uganda’s fertility rates, arguing that fewer children per woman will safeguard the economy, despite some Members of Parliament (MPs) questioning the rationale behind celebrating reduced fertility instead of encouraging population growth.
This debate arose after Amos Lugoloobi, Minister of State for Planning, presented the National Development Plan IV before Parliament’s Budget Committee on Monday January 6, 2025. While highlighting achievements from the previous National Development Plan III, Lugoloobi revealed, “The fertility rate reduced to 5.2 children per woman in 2022/23, down from 6.2 children in 2010.”
However, Patrick Isiagi, Chairperson of the Budget Committee, challenged the minister’s statement, asking, “Is that an achievement?” Minister Lugoloobi affirmed, “Yes, the fertility rate reducing is an achievement.” Isiagi responded, “We need to triple [the fertility rate],” prompting Lugoloobi to counter, “Oh my God, that would be too dangerous for the economy.”
Data from the 2016 Uganda Demographic and Health Survey indicates that the national Total Fertility Rate (TFR) stands at 5.4 children per woman, with significant regional disparities. TFR ranges from 3.5 children per woman in Kampala to as high as 7.9 in the Karamoja region. The United Nations Population Fund (UNFPA) noted that regions with higher fertility rates often experience elevated poverty levels.
UNFPA further highlighted that Uganda’s high fertility rate has resulted in one of the world’s most youthful populations, with over half of the population below the age of 15. This large family size, it stated, hampers both families and the government from making sufficient investments in education and health, thereby limiting human capital development and socioeconomic progress.
The National Planning Authority (NPA) echoed these concerns, emphasizing that Uganda’s human capital is underdeveloped. “Uganda’s human capital index is low at 0.38, meaning children born today are likely to achieve only 38% of their full productive potential. The vocational curriculum is not dynamic enough to meet labor market demands, and higher education lacks sufficient practical training. Consequently, employers spend considerable resources reorienting and retooling new entrants into the job market,” Lugoloobi explained.
The minister also reported progress in infrastructure development, noting that the total paved national road network increased from 3,112 km in 2010/11 to 6,999 km in 2023/24. However, he emphasized the need for regular maintenance and diversification of transport infrastructure. “Our transport infrastructure is heavily biased towards roads, which constitute 90% of the network. Only 25% of these roads are paved, making them vulnerable to damage, especially during the rainy season,” he said.
Lugoloobi stressed the need for investment in air, water, and rail transport to reduce costs and ease congestion in urban centers like Kampala, where traffic delays significantly impact productivity.
The NPA also raised concerns about the high cost of capital, attributing it to speculative tendencies, the oligopolistic nature of the banking sector, high borrower risks, excessive government domestic borrowing, undercapitalization of public banks, unresolved commercial disputes, low savings rates, and high operational costs for commercial banks.
“Uganda’s financial market is dominated by short-term capital, which cannot finance long-term investments due to underdeveloped financial institutions,” Lugoloobi concluded.
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