By Our Reporter
While Pope Francis remains hospitalised with double pneumonia, many are asking who might lead the Vatican and Catholic Church in the future.
The 88-year-old pontiff showed the onset of “bilateral pneumonia” – meaning it is present in both his lungs – as his condition “continues to present a complex picture”, the Vatican said after he was admitted to Rome’s Gemelli Hospital last week.
The Pope’s illness has seen events over the weekend cancelled and has cast uncertainty over the Holy Year too. His health concerns in recent years and his age have caused questions to be asked about his succession.
There are already a number of well-known cardinals whose names have been put forward to fill the role. In 2020, Edward Pentin released an authoritative book on the topic, titled: The Next Pope: The Leading Cardinal Candidates.
Following the death of a pope, or in rare cases of resignation such as with Pope Benedict XVI, the Vatican convenes a papal conclave, in which the College of Cardinals come together to elect the Church’s next head.
The rules of the conclave, as of 22 January 2025, stated there are 138 electors of the 252 cardinals. Only those under the age of 80 may take part in the secret ballot in the Sistine Chapel.
Four rounds of voting would take place every day until a candidate receives a major two-thirds of the vote, in a process that typically lasts 15 to 20 days, per the United States Conference of Catholic Bishops website.
Cardinal Pietro Parolin
As the Vatican’s secretary of state since 2013, 70-year-old Parolin, from Veneto, is the highest-ranking cardinal in the electing conclave.
Rather than adhering to “left” or “right” political leanings, Parolin has long been considered a sensible moderate figure within the church.
Most recently, Parolin gave an interview with Italian newspaper L’Eco di Bergamo in which he commented on a number of geopolitical issues.
He said: “Everyone can contribute to peace, but solutions must never be pursued through unilateral impositions that risk trampling on the rights of entire peoples, otherwise, there will never be a just and lasting peace.”
Cardinal Peter Erdö
As a former president of the Council of Bishops Conferences of Europe, Cardinal Erdö is known for being a devout Marian, meaning he devotes his practices to Mary, mother of Jesus.
The 72-year-old Hungarian has famously been a more conservative voice within the church, having opposed the practice of divorced or remarried Catholics receiving Holy Communion due to his belief in the insolubility of marriage.
He has also compared the act of taking in refugees to human trafficking. Erdö was made a cardinal in 2003 by Pope John Paul II.
Cardinal Luis Antonio Tagle
As the seventh Filipino to become a cardinal, Tagle would be the first Asian pope. The 67-year-old currently serves as the pro-prefect for the section of first evangelisation of the dicastery for evangelisation, having been made a cardinal by Pope Benedict XVI.
He has typically shown more left-leaning politics, similar to Pope Francis, after he criticised the church’s attitude and language towards gay people, unwed mothers, and divorced or remarried Catholics.
He said in 2015: “The harsh words that were used in the past to refer to gays and divorced and separated people, the unwed mothers etc, in the past they were quite severe. Many people who belonged to those groups were branded and that led to their isolation from the wider society.”
Cardinal Matteo Zuppi
Considered to be a favourite of Pope Francis, Cardinal Zuppi has been president of the Episcopal Conference of Italy since May 2022.
The 69-year-old was made a cardinal by Francis in 2019 and has since been sent on a number of global trips. He went on a peace mission to Ukraine where he met president Volodymyr Zelensky, but not Russia’s Vladimir Putin, and he went to the United States to meet then-president Joe Biden.
Prior to being a cardinal, Zuppi shared his more positive views of the LGBTQ community, as he wrote an essay in James Martin’s 2018 book, Building a Bridge, Un ponte da costruire that it was “useful for encouraging dialogue, as well as reciprocal knowledge and understanding” for a new pastoral approach with “our LGBT brothers and sisters”.
Cardinal Raymond Leo Burke
Regarded by critics as an outspoken traditionalist, Cardinal Burke, born in Wisconsin, was made a cardinal by Pope Benedict XVI in 2010.
He has publicly clashed with Pope Francis’s more liberal philosophies, particularly regarding his willingness to allow divorced and remarried couples to receive the Eucharist. He has also called the church’s new language around artificial contraception, civil marriages and gay people “objectionable”.
He previously said that Catholic politicians who support legalised abortion, such as Mr Biden, should not receive the Eucharist.
Papal Succession Will Be Political
On Feb. 6, before he was hospitalized, he extended the term of the Italian cardinal Giovanni Battista Re as dean of the College of Cardinals, a role that will oversee some preparations for a potential conclave, the secretive gathering that determines the selection of a new pope. The move, which controversially sidestepped a scheduled vote on the next dean by top cardinals, was intended to ensure that the process plays out according to Francis’s wishes, the people said.
Re, a longtime Vatican operator, is too old to participate in the conclave himself. Nevertheless, he will be a pivotal figure in the behind-closed-doors discussions that often take place before the conclave. That Francis selected him as dean instead of a younger candidate suggests he wanted to keep a friendly face in the role who would defend his legacy, said one of the people.
“The run-up to the conclave is more important as that’s where lobbying goes on,” the person said.Ahead of the 2013 conclave that elected him pope, Francis himself reportedly benefitted from the influence of a group of cardinals who were too old to participate in the proceedings but nevertheless held sway over the outcome.Re’s continuation in the role will also see him deliver funeral rites for Francis should he die. The pope has privately joked that Re will be “kinder” to him than other candidates, a second person added.Before his health took a turn for the worse, Francis was navigating a politically sensitive moment. Earlier this month, he issued an extraordinary rebuke of United States Vice President JD Vance’s characterization of Ordo Amoris, a theological concept relating to love that Vance used to justify President Donald Trump’s migrant policy. The papal pushback triggered fury from the White House, raising the prospect of a highly politicized succession battle should Francis die.“They’ve already influenced European politics, they’d have no problem influencing the conclave,” said one close observer of Vatican politics, referring to the Trump administration. “They might be looking for someone less confrontational.”
On Saturday, the pontiff also sped up his unprecedented reformist move to appoint a nun, Sister Raffaella Petrini, as the next and first woman governor of Vatican City, announcing that Petrini’s term would begin on March 1. That date was earlier than some expected and triggered unease about his health among allies, according to one high-ranking Church official. However, it might also have been a coincidence: the current governor, Cardinal Fernando Vérgez Alzaga, will turn 80 that day, making him ineligible for the role.
Even if Francis survives his latest illness, observers see this as a likely turning point as Francis shifts focus from making headway on reform to locking it in.
“He may not die now but of course he eventually will,” said one Vatican official. “We all die — and he’s an 88-year-old man with lung problems.”
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