Prosper Kururagire: From Crowd Excitement To Ground Defeat, NUP Faces A Crushing Defeat In 2026

Opinion By Prosper Tuhaise Kururagire | NRM Chairman Mbarara District

As Uganda moves steadily toward the 2026 general elections, it is important to speak honestly about the political realities on the ground. From where I stand as NRM Chairman for Mbarara District, the National Unity Platform (NUP) is facing a far more difficult election than it did in 2021, not only at the presidential level but across parliamentary, local government, and grassroots leadership contests.

In 2021, NUP benefited from a wave of protest sentiment, especially in urban areas. That wave gave the party visibility and excitement, but excitement alone does not build a political organisation. Five years later, the limits of that approach are clear. A political party must be built on structures, discipline, leadership depth, and constant engagement with the people. On these fundamentals, NUP has fallen short.

In districts like Mbarara, NUP has failed to establish meaningful grassroots networks. There are no strong village committees, no consistent mobilisation, and no clear local leadership capable of translating national messages into practical solutions for communities. Politics cannot survive on social media statements and occasional rallies. It requires presence, trust, and delivery. Where those are missing, electoral support inevitably declines.

The same challenge applies to NUP’s parliamentary and local government ambitions. Many of their MPs elected in 2021 have struggled to demonstrate tangible impact for their constituents. Without a record of service or strong ties to local communities, defending those seats in 2026 will be extremely difficult. At lower levels such as local councils and community leadership, NUP’s weakness is even more pronounced due to the absence of experienced candidates and functional party structures.

At the presidential level, Hon. Robert Kyagulanyi continues to rely heavily on confrontation and protest politics rather than presenting a credible and coherent national governance alternative. While this approach may generate attention, it does not inspire confidence among voters who prioritise stability, security, and steady development. As the election draws closer, voters increasingly judge leadership by capacity and track record rather than emotion.

In contrast, the NRM remains deeply rooted in communities across the country. Party structures are active from village to national level. Mobilisation is continuous and leadership is tested. Engagement with the people is daily, not seasonal. This organisational strength gives the NRM a decisive advantage not only in Mbarara but nationwide.

For these reasons, I am convinced that NUP will perform worse in 2026 than it did in 2021. The losses will extend beyond the presidential race to Members of Parliament, councillors, and candidates at all levels. Ugandans are increasingly voting for organisation, experience, and reliability, qualities that remain firmly with the NRM.

Elections are won on the ground, not online. On the ground, the reality is clear. NUP is losing momentum, while NRM is consolidating strength.